Friday, December 27, 2013

The Legacy of Nelson Mandela


On the 15th of December, 2013, Nelson Mandela’s body was laid to rest in his home village of Qunu. The massive, spontaneous outpouring of condolences and sympathy that his death triggered was a clear manifestation of the respect Nelson Mandela commanded around the world. The passing of a “giant,” as one magazine called it, such as Mandela’s leaves behind in its wake the daunting task of evaluating his legacies. In this article, I briefly reflect upon Mandela’s legacy. For all the respect he commands, Mandela also has his detractors who question the soundness of his legacy on two grounds. First, they question if Mandela greatness has not been expounded beyond proportions by the lopsided reportage of the media. Second, they ask if Mandela had done enough to protect the interests of blacks in view of the huge economic inequalities seen in today’s South Africa. Before facing these questions headlong, let’s step back, and begin by looking into the character of the man in question – Nelson Mandela.

Born Free

The most important feature of Mandela’s character was perhaps his being a free spirit. In his autobiography, The Long Journey to Freedom[1], he writes:
“I was not born with a hunger to be free. I was born free – free in every way that I could know. Free to run in the fields near my mother's hut, free to swim in the clear stream that ran through my village, free to roast mealies under the stars and ride the broad backs of slow-moving bulls. As long as I obeyed my father and abided by the customs of my tribe, I was not troubled by the laws of man or God.”

When it downed on him that his freedom was curtailed by the apartheid regime, he stood fearlessly to fight it. He neglected his career and his family, endangered his life, and spent much of his youth and adulthood fighting the seemingly insurmountable force of apartheid.

As much as he was free and fearless, Mandela’s also possessed considerable level-headedness. This character can be seen in his pragmatic approach to politics, in his humane response to the grievances of apartheid, and the level of self-assuredness he exhibited in all of those arduous years. No doubt his personality evolved over time, and perhaps he owes his sagacity much to the 27-year long incarceration he went through. In his autobiography, he describes how he decided to maintain an unblemished spirit in the face of venomous adversity:
“I realized that they could take everything from me except my mind and my heart. They could not take those things. Those things I still had control over. And I decided not to give them away.”

Thus Mandela managed to avoid becoming the monster he was fighting against, a trap all too many freedom fighters fall into[2].

When he spoke against apartheid, for example in the courtroom of his trial, he spoke in a firm but measured tone. His arguments were never polarized – never to the extent that would be expected from a person so unjustly accused, and was faced with a potential death penalty. He was charismatic, but never descended to the folly of impressionistic or populist arguments. His logic was consistent, and, perhaps by design, easily accessible to his opponents. As a politician this made him a trustworthy negotiator who could do business with integrity. His ability to exude trust and integrity was indispensable in assuaging the fears of the governing National Party which enabled it to arrive at a negotiated solution with the African National Congress (ANC).

All said, Mandela was a truly great persona that understood and fully believed in his greatness, and was not afraid to show it to the world. He was the right man at the right time. He was the grand spirit that applied itself to a great purpose, with grit and consistency, until it was eventually met. Thus he saw through the liberation of his people from an atrocious minority regime, and became the first black president of his country. By no means does this mean that he was perfect, and to that we will come in a short while.

The Unsung Heroes


A poster from the "Free Mandela" Movement showing the ANC helping Mandela's release.
Although Mandela is (perhaps rightly) presented as the face of the freedom struggle that brought down apartheid, there are two other factors that played at least equally important roles. The first is the leadership of the African Congress Party, which was able to mobilize the masses and keep the spirit of the struggle undimmed in a remarkably harsh environment. The second factor, contradictory as it may seem, is the openness of the system of governance of the apartheid regime. The predictable and law-based nature of the South Africa’s administration was a crucial factor that contributed to a successful negotiated solution towards democracy. In the years leading up to the 1994 election, there were several violent incidents involving the semi-autonomous tribal states and extremist Afrikaner nationalist forces, both of which wanted to either maintain the status quo or secede from the union and establish a separate country. The active and constructive involvement of the Afrikaner National Party avoided the risk of a violent civil war that could have dealt a catastrophic blow to the process of change. It is in recognition of this contribution that the Nobel Peace Prize of 1993 was given not only to Mandela but also to de Klerk who, although no other than an apartheid president, had the cunning to see the “hand-writing on the wall” and acted in favor of change before it was too late.


Mandela the Saint?

Mandela, however, is no Gandhi or Martin Luther King since he spearheaded sabotage and military action against apartheid. Although the ANC initially adopted non-violent struggle, it was forced to change its methods following the brutal retaliation of the government that culminated in the Sharpeville massacre of 1960. A year later, Mandela co-founded and became the head of the underground military wing of the ANC.

In a recorded speech, Mandela made the case for military action against the apartheid regime:
 “There are thousands of people who feel that it is useless and futile for us to continue talking peace and non-violence — against a government whose only reply is savage attacks on an unarmed and defenseless people. And I think the time has come for us to consider, in the light of our experiences at this day at home, whether the methods which we have applied so far are adequate.”

Mandela argued that “The oppressor defines the nature of the struggle.” It is largely for his involvement in bombings by this armed wing of the ANC, which led to several deaths, that he was arrested in 1962 and sentenced to life in prison.

When, in 1985, the then president P.W. Botha offered to release him if he rejected violence, Mandela spurned the offer, stating that "Only free men can negotiate. A prisoner cannot enter into contracts." Still, Mandela remained a champion of a negotiated solution during the long decades of his incarceration. The final agreement that led up to a general election was essentially engineered by Mandela in spite of initial opposition from his own party.


A picture of Mandela visiting his prison cell in Robben Island where he spent 18 years, taken in 1994.

Plastic Halo?

This brings us to question of the extent to which Mandela’s crown of ‘halo’ is a fabricated matter. If Mandela was not the only actor in the fight against apartheid, and if he were not really the forgiving saint that some portray him to be, then where does his current saintly picture come from? Although the issue is unavoidably subjective, I would like to point out a couple of biases and inconsistencies related to media coverage that contributed to this misrepresentation.

First of all, the media tends to settle for presenting a rather stripped down, even superficial version of reality that is targeted for the average audience. It is due to this common denominator effect that much of the news coverage regarding Mandela fails to fully present the complexity of the freedom struggle in South Africa. The case for such shallow reporting is especially stronger when the setting is a faraway country such as South Africa, so that nobody cares about the smaller details.

Secondly, there is the media’s tendency to repeat and magnify the sensual aspect of a story. Heaping praise and glory on famous individuals is both cheaper and more sensual than discovering new heroes, or going to the bottom of the story with all of its complexities. The extraordinary life of Mandela makes him a natural target for a cult personality. He is often presented as a statesman, a forgiving figurehead and a unifying force of South Africa, while in fact in his earlier years he was a rather militant freedom fighter. This narrative is also likely to gain currency since it makes Mandela palatable to the tastes of the international audience who would otherwise find it hard to identify with a freedom fighter of a faraway country. What transpired from his funeral, however, is that Mandela is loved and respected among his own people largely for defying the brutal, minority regime of apartheid, and for sacrificing his life for fighting against it.

Mandela is more fittingly described as a practical and humane politician with an indomitable spirit to win rather than as a saintly figure. Regardless of what the media says, Mandela remains a great hero of his country and the world at large. Perhaps the most important proof for this is the extent to which he was dearly missed upon his death by his own people who knew him closely for decades[3].


Mandela was sworn in as the first democratically elected president of South Africa in 1994. 

Liberty without Prosperity

Political and economic freedom go hand in hand. It is fair to expect that South Africans fought against apartheid not merely to be able to elect their own leaders, but also to have full access to economic opportunities. Under Mandela’s presidency, the government significantly expanded its welfare scheme by launching several safety net programs that protected the economically underprivileged, and introduced affirmative action to encourage the participation of blacks in the labor market. It also introduced a land reform to rebalance the extremely skewed distribution of land[4]. Although the economy benefited from these policies and rebounded rapidly, the majority of blacks in South Africa still remain impoverished.

Critics point out that the government could have taken more radical measures such as nationalizing the mines and other sectors of the economy. Given the fall of the Berlin Wall and the strong negotiation position of the National Party, these radical moves were ruled out from the beginning. In any case, it is difficult to argue that a mere redistribution of wealth could have redressed the intractable economic challenges of South Africa. In fact, the ANC should be praised for refraining from economic populism since poverty could be reduced only by means of long term growth.

The greatest strength of South Africa is not its wealth of gold and diamonds, nor its relatively high level of income. What sets apart South Africa from other African countries is that it was fortunate enough to inherit a set of political and economic institutions that were designed to work for the settlers[5]. The achievements of these institutions are already there to see in the country’s relatively high quality of life, and in the successful power transfer from the minority regime to an elected government in 1994. This makes South Africa part of a select group of young countries such as USA, Canada, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand that are unique for successfully transplanting the market friendly and democratic institutions of Old Europe (Or to be more specific, those of Britain). Because their inclusive nature, these institutions have the potential to unleash economic prosperity by encouraging wealth creation via education and entrepreneurship. The future of South Africa depends to a great extent on its ability to maintain and upgrade these institutions so that they serve all citizens. 

Of course it will take many years before the broader public of South Africa could be lifted up from poverty. The economic integration of the once-excluded blacks in the US, for example, is far from complete five decades after the end of segregation, highlighting the sluggishness of similar undertakings. It is perhaps fitting to conclude by citing yet another remarkable statement of Mandela about the need for patience:

“The truth is that we are not yet free; we have merely achieved the freedom to be free, the right not to be oppressed. We have not taken the final step of our journey, but the first step on a longer and even more difficult road. For to be free is not merely to cast off one's chains, but to live in a way that respects and enhances the freedom of others. The true test of our devotion to freedom is just beginning.”





[1] Here and elsewhere I am referring to his official autobiography “A Long Walk to Freedom” that was published in 1995 by Little Brown & Co.

[2] The Irish poet W. B. Yeats wrote that “Too long a sacrifice can make a stone of the heart,” which nonetheless is an assertion that does not apply for Mandela. In an inspired article that intimates his relationship with Mandela, Bob Geldof elucidates this point poetically: “The true miracle of Nelson Mandela is that it did not [make his heart a stone]: 27 years of incarceration, he did not break, and, most remarkably of all, his soul did not harden.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nelson-mandela/10499624/Nelson-Mandela-Bob-Geldof-pays-tribute.html

[3] There is an important side note here. The Western media has a significant clout that enables it to decide what event is newsworthy, to frame it in its own terms, and even report it in a lopsided manner. It is, for example, very likely that an event in South Africa gets more media coverage than a comparable event in another country due to South Africa’s tight relationship with England. Here is an informative example of how the western media adjudges what is newsworthy. Everyone knows Colonel Idi Amin Dada, the brutal dictator of Uganda in the years 1971 - 1979. In those years, the western media was awash with news reports from that impoverished country, although, the content of the coverage grew dimmer through time and eventually turned against the dictator. The interest in this dictator was so significant that the famous film about him that was released after his death, “Last King of Scotland,” was a box office success. In these same years, close by Ethiopia was ruled by another dictator, Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, who oversaw a disastrous reign of terror and civil war in the country. Under both dictators, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands people perished. Nonetheless, there was a much less news coverage from Ethiopia than Uganda. Even today, googling the names of the two dictators reveals that Idi Amin Dada gets almost 100,000 more search hits than Mengistu Haile Mariam, although the later was a dictator for twice as many years and over a much larger country. How do we explain this significant difference of interest between the two dictators? The answer lies in the strong relationship of Uganda with Britain, which was its past colonial master, as a result of which Uganda is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. The British also had a vested interest in maintaining peace in Uganda because of the presence of a large Indian settler community which was one of the legacies of their colonial rule of the country. When their relationship with Idi Amin Dada finally collapsed, he displaced thousands of Indians who eventually came to England and had to be provided for. The point here is that, not surprisingly, the Western media sees things through a western angle, leading to a differential treatment of affairs that are otherwise similar.

[4] The 1913 land reform had shrunken the proportion of land owned by black South Africans to a mere 7%, although whites constitute only 9% of the population in present day South Africa.

[5] In most other African countries, colonizers built exploitative institutions that facilitated the extraction of natural resources rather than boosting economic growth. These institutions were then passed onto the newly independent African nations at the end of colonialization. For institutional difference between settler and non-settler coloines, see: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Titbits

You have both the paint and the brush
To paint my life in any color you wish.

**********

You ask
Why I am always insecure 
It is because
I know I am always naked 
Inside my clothes.

**********

Father, take this life of fresh clay
And mold it into a beautiful art of joy.


**********

The roads to heaven are as many as the travellers.

**********

Not far can a dog run
When it chases its own tail.
Not much can a lion grow
When it gnaws its own paw.
**********

In three small moments
I can dismantle my future
And repackage it again
Altering the course of my fate
As my will would dictate.

**********

Just as the utterance of love
Is different across languages
So is the joy of life 
Expressed in a million ways.


**********

My love for each one of you
Is like a fresh red petal
And my Love for the Universe
The entre rose blossom.

**********
AAL

Introspection

What is pain?

Here is a comforting analysis. Whatever brings pain to your life is a great opportunity for advancement. Pain implies the absence of something you want, or the presence of something you do not want. But you can change your wants and desires, or even be free from them. The source of pain is not their absence or presence, but our attachment to them. One by one, we can remove our attachments, thereby increasing the level of our freedom. Pain is thus an instrument for freedom.

What is essence?

I try to answer this question by means of induction, by disproving alternate explanations turn by turn. What is essential must be true yesterday and true tomorrow. We can hence ignore all the dynamics about our lives and focus only on one moment, now, to find the essential element that does not change with time. It is like holding a strand of dry spaghetti with a pair of forceps or scissors, and cutting both edges, each representing the past and the future. We can now focus on the now. What is it in me that is essential and unaffected by time? To my surprise the only answer I could come up with is the Potential to Be. What I become at all levels of experience -- physical, emotional, mental – is non-essential because it can change. But the Potential remains a constant, whether or not it is realized, and in whatever way it is realized.

What is truth?

Who really wants the truth? In all honesty, truth is the least romantic -- and hence the least sought after -- of all the ideals such as love, freedom, peace etc. It is less romantic because it is neutral, and promises nothing. It might even be dangerous. What if the truth is in fact painful and restrictive instead of peaceful and freeing? But precisely because it is neutral, truth trumps up everything else. Hell the truth shall set you free, whether it sends you to jail or to your own house. Why? Because it is the truth. It has that inherent power to put straight all incongruency. Perhaps the greatest achievement of man is to look straight into the eyes of the truth. The courage to do it must be truly liberating. And there is also some tenderness about truth. And this is the fact that, however uncomfortable the truth might be, it can never be less rewarding than a lie.

Question Or Answer?

Life is one big question mark. Not a full stop. That is what makes it exciting! Humans love uncertainty. We hate cut-and-dried affairs that are concluded from the beginning. We love the question rather than the answer. The multitude of possibilities questions represent enthrall us more than the dreary facts answers contain. We love new people, new places, unexpected events, though with uncertainty and originality a lot of risk and danger is also involved. In movies we enjoy most not the ending but the dramatic point where the protagonist’s life is on a treadmill. While dating we are most promiscuous in the early stages where we have to form the bond. Even in sex, it is not the orgasmic moment that we find exhilarating but the moments building up to it. We are wired to enjoy the uncertainty, and the openness of expectations the unknown entails. 


Monday, November 11, 2013

Warriors

The storm has subsided
The losses have been counted
And the sun is finally shining
Through the mountains of cloud.

Now is the time
For you and me to come together
We have lost the battle
But the war can still be won.

I wait for your visit
With full faith
And call with an open heart
Come!
So you and I may talk business
Strengthen our alliance
And anchor our fraternity
On unsurpassed resilience.

Come, my Brother
My combat partner
Enough time has been spent
Waiting for the inevitable
Now is the time
For you and me to come together
To solidify our forces 
For this battle
We are certain to win.

I call you my Eternal Brother
My combat partner
Not only do you speak
The language of my mother  
Not only do you harken
From the birth-land of my father
Not only are you bound
With me in flesh and blood 
But also you and I
My dearest combat partner
Primarily share one goal
Ever since time was born  
Of winning this epic battle.

~By Addisu
Ancona, Italy
30-10-13

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Monday, October 21, 2013

Contradiction

I want to go to a place where there are no men, not even myself. 

Without men there are no questions, and no search for answers. No troubles and confusion. Not even peace and serenity... these solutions would be unnecessary where the problems do not arise in the first place. This place will have neither vacancies nor jobs, neither tvs nor cinemas, neither struggles nor compromises, neither things nor ideas, neither secrecy nor publicity, neither life nor death, neither time nor eternity, neither friends nor enemies, neither truth nor lies, and perhaps more importantly, no pretenses at all, and no purposeless existence.

It is not that I am too sensitive to hurt, or too fearful of suffering in a world of dramas. It is just that I am tired of the drama. We must admit that we do not really love to live in a dream. Although we may be fond of the experience for some time, we soon grow tired of it. The only reason keeping us in this place is our dim wit. We have long concluded that there is no better choice. Or we are contented with the occasional gratification in the short cycle of pain and pleasure. Not for me. I want to escape and get my freedom.

*****

How sweet it is to be in love
The butterflies on the stomach
The warm blood rushing in the veins
The flush on the chick
The wild drums of the heart
The intoxication of the senses
The fuzzy oozzy sensation
The exotic hallucination
The desire to melt
The wish to evaporate
In to a winged spirit
In the arms of the beloved
In the gaze of his sight.
To be in love, even fleetingly
To be lost and forget totally. 

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Reflections

The moment you open your mouth to say something, you are implying that something is there that is worth speaking. This is a judgment, and with it the whole world crystallizes into existence. You are now accepting the delineation between good and bad, and thus accepting all the limitations that arise from it. You are like one of us, a mere fragile human. You can be threatened, and even killed.

I will not pretend to be a saint who sees only the good and the loving. I am not inherently bad either; I do not wish painful suffering even for my enemies. I am merely a sentient being. I live to minimize my pain and maximize my pleasures, although my definitions for both are neither stable nor consistent. I am totally self-interested, and I see my wishes and fears scribbled on every thing in the world. I may even say there is not much distinction between me and another animal, with one major exception. In all the courses of action I take and the events I participate in, I am aware of the possibility of an entirely different course of action or event. I am able to see beyond what is, and even beyond my self-interest. In that awareness is the total distinction between me and another animal.  
There is an I 
That my mother brought up
There is an I 
Sitting dreamily on on the park bench
There is an I 
Pacing about in the office corridor
There is an I
That has a facebook account
There is an I
---
Perhaps it is my job 
Trying to hold together
These multiple pieces of me 
In to a coherent story.

Politics in Ethiopia


Saturday, September 21, 2013

In my father’s house

In my father’s house
There are many mansions.
Enough, for each one of us
For each, as his own wish.

In my Father’s house
In our Dear’s  compound
We have many mansions
Enough for everyone’s need.

The mansions, in our Father’s house
Shine in the morning sun
Dear and beloved
Precious like a pure stone,
Like a diamond.

For each, as his own wish
As per his dreams, and ambitions
And so they are designed
And built, and decorated
And carpeted, and gardened.

In my Father’s house
There are many mansions
Enough for everyone’s need
If it were not so, I would have told you
But it is so, and so rest assured.

September 2011

Kiss

I felt the kiss of her lips 
Touching my cheek in the darkness
And I asked
--
How come I cannot touch your face
Tell me about it please
Is it back or white
Golden or violet?
--
And she laughed
In a melodious whisper
--
You speak so strangely my dear
My face does not have any color
Does perfection have a shape
Or purity any texture?
If you could describe it
It wouldn't be any more perfect
Since then you would toss and roll 
Slice and dice it
Till you find it in fault.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Population Issues: How Economics Rules

Environmentalists ranging from Malthus to Brundtland fret that the earth is exploding from overpopulation. Citing numbers like those depicted in the Figure below, they complain that the earth has reached a turning point. Man has become one pathetic fecund animal that reproduces without limit. In contrast, they contend that the earth’s resources are finite and, and its ecosystem fragile. If the current trend continues, man will not only have insufficient means to survive, but could also destroy the earth’s fragile ecosystem, polluting its water and air resources, and bringing about catastrophic phenomena such as global warming.  

Most environmentalists find enough ground in this to reject economic growth, thus emphasizing a new movement towards ‘economic de-growth'[1]. Some could even trace the roots of unbridled population growth back to the commencement of uninterrupted economic growth, largely since the late 19th century.
  


Needless to say, the rise in human populations coincides with the era of economic growth. Modern food production that made available abundant, if nonorganic, food supplies significantly reduced deaths from starvation. Similarly, the invention of modern medication from the penicillin to an endless variety of vaccines has significantly lowered child mortality rates and contributed to higher life expectancy. However, to contend that sustainable human population growth can be achieved only by economic ‘degrowth’ is quite unwarranted.

One of the key scientifically established relationships in social sciences is what is known as “the demographic transition.” This refers to the observation that population growth rates fall with economic growth, an observation that can be easily ascertained from the Figure below. How does this come about? There are several ways in which economic growth contributes to lower population growth.

First, better economic growth brings about more and better quality of education. Perhaps there are many ways in which education reduces fertility. But one important mechanism is the feeling of empowerment education brings about, especially to women. With better education, individuals can break the mold of inherited societal roles, and get the ability to envision and plan their own future. This weakens the lethargic perception that adolescence is naturally followed by a family and a lot of children. With the empowerment of education, couples take the future into their own hands, and responsibly plan when and how many children to have.  


Second, and related, economic development makes child rearing an expensive venture. The benefit of having one more children must be weighed against the financial bites ensuing from it. This is what economists call the opportunity cost of time. When having a baby the mother has to stay home for period of at least half a year, and perhaps even longer than a year, which is quite a lot of money lost if she has to stop working. In the meantime, career plans have to be kept on hold. As time goes on more financial costs come in, including the cost for additional accommodation, means of transportation (perhaps a new car), and future costs of child care and education. Not just financially, but even emotionally, child rearing is an expensive business, if both couples are working and come home tired from a full day of work. All this increases the incentive for couples to having smaller and manageable families, with increased emphasis on the ‘quality’ of the child in terms of education and other resources devoted rather than the mere number of children.

There are many more reasons why population falls with economic growth. For example, the incentive for having more children as a means of ‘social security’ declines, since with increased economic prosperity the state often provides support for the retired. Even among families that are not fortunate enough to get the advantages of education and employment, economic growth makes contraceptives more accessible thus making family planning possible.

Overall, economic development is perhaps the best answer for the ills of overpopulation the earth is facing. As one famous person said before, it is indeed true that "development is the best contraceptive."[2]







[1] Seek the Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth
[2] Karan Singh as quoted in :David N. Weil (2004). Economic Growth. Addison-Wesley. p. 111. 

Friday, June 7, 2013

Homeless Nile

There is an old saying in Ethiopia that roughly translates as “Nile has no home of its own, and yet it carries much luggage with it.” That is to imply that, knowing nothing of its destination, it assumes the burden of additional responsibility.

No doubt an Egyptian would disagree with that. Yes, it is true that Nile carries so much luggage with it. While meandering through the rugged Ethiopian highlands, the Nile washes down the fertile volcanic soil that give it its peculiar dark brown color. The annual flooding of this rich water has formed the backbone of the ancient Egyptian river valley civilization. And yet, while the Nile carries much luggage, an Egyptian would say, it is nothing but homeless. Its home is the Mediterranean, Egypt.

I have always wished to visit Egypt, a dream that has not yet come true. But even without visiting it, it is easy to imagine the precarious dependence of this desert country on the Nile. Without the rich gush of water that streams from the Ethiopian mountains, Egypt is but a patch of uninhabitable wasteland. Thanks to the Nile, though, it is home of an amazing ancient civilization. Although upwards 85% of the Nile waters come from Ethiopia, in the end most of it goes to the service of Egyptians that remain at the mouth of the river. This is the case today, as it has been for thousands of years.

There is an increasing controversy about Ethiopia’s plans to dam the Nile river. This issue has been simmering for years, but now that the actual physical work has started, it has grown to outright confrontation. And the media is awash with opinions from both sides. The first thing that startled me about these opinions is that the majority from both sides claim full privilege over the river. Sitting at different ends of the Nile, it appears that both Ethiopians and Egyptians claim the whole river for themselves. But the fact remains that the Nile starts in Ethiopia and ends in Egypt. Unavoidably, the Nile is a shared river.

To say that Egypt has ‘historical right’ over the Nile is as true as saying that Ethiopia has a ‘physical right’ on the river. Both are totally true, but do not necessarily contradict with each other. Although the Nile has not been ‘historically’ used in Ethiopia, taming the unharnessed Nile has been a dream Ethiopians have long itched to write in their history books. Now that this is becoming a reality, a significant change in perspective is expected from Egypt, a country that has for centuries dominated the Nile river and seems, even today, to naively assume that it can continue to do so. In the meantime, Ethiopia too should recognize that the Nile is shared, and a physical control on its source is not tantamount to complete ownership.

This time seems a critical juncture in the relationship between these two countries that have been from the beginning tied by the umblicalcord of the Nile, although both have so far failed to appreciate this fact. Given the rapid population growth and potentially frequent draughts from climate change, every drop of the Nile will become more valuable in the coming century. The relationship between the two countries will head in two potential courses of direction in the coming decades. Hopefully, both countries will come to terms with the fact that the Nile is a shared river, which needs to be jointly managed and developed. However, there is another scenario that worries me as a likely development. Faced with polarized politics and extreme poverty at home, politicians from both sides could use the Nile as smoke screen to externalize their problems. I am afraid that the Ethiopian and the Egyptian, who for thousands of years drank from the river Nile, will fail to recognize the value of their joint possession, and fall victim to hatred and anger towards each other. I can only hope that time will prove this fear wrong.

June 7, 2013
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 Nile river



 Blue Nile Falls, Ethiopia



 A map of the Nile



 Airial picture of the Nile Delta, Egypt



Sunset on the Nile 

Sunday, May 12, 2013

And there was light… and poverty


Perhaps you had once wondered why all countries within the tropics are poor or almost poor. If you take a look at the map again, you will observe that all of the world’s wealthiest countries, with the exception of the tiny island of Singapore and the sub-nation of Hong Kong, lie within the temperate zone. Of course not all non-tropical countries are rich; but it pretty much appears that year-long sunshine does not go hand in hand with riches. (Too bad for some of us, who would have liked to have it both, sunshine and money.)

The notion that climate affects economic performance, or “environmental determinism” as some people call it, is an age-old concept. The 18th century French enlightenment thinker Montesquieu was among those who saw a link between climate and human behavior[1]. However, the role of climate on economic performance is out of fashion in current economic thinking, perhaps because of its deterministic and simplistic appearance. Nonetheless, it remains true today as much as ever that poverty is more prevalent in the tropics.

Figure 1 provides a scatter plot and a linear regression fit of average annual temperature on GDP per capita for a sample of 94 countries. The significance of the correlation is remarkable as is its strength: for every rise of annual temperature by 1 degree Celsius, GDP per capita falls by 6%. If Uganda, a country on the Equator, were as cold as Switzerland (a large 17 degrees fall in average temperature), its GDP would double, raising its income to the level of Pakistan. An alternative estimation gives the equally remarkable result that GDP increases by 13% for every one more month with below zero average temperature. The model does over- and under- shoot in predicting the income of some countries. Singapore is too rich for its climate, and Kyrgyzstan should have been much richer given its climate. But it does a good job for many countries; for example the incomes of countries like Canada and Argentina can be almost perfectly predicted once we know their climate.


Is this relationship totally a fluke or is there some sensible reason why income should be lower in the tropics? Thanks to the pure exogenous nature of climate, the standard critique of endogeneity cannot apply here. Could it be that this is purely coincidental? The fact that the economic significance of climate is raised by early thinkers and confirmed by recent data warrants that it deserves a closer look.

I think there are at least two reasons why climate can affect economic performance. Firstly, the potentially heavy winters in the temperate parts of the world could provide unique incentives for innovation and encourage forward looking behavior. If necessity is the mother of invention, I would say the European and northern Asian winter must have begotten a host of inventions[2].

Major examples are of course those innovations that directly tackle the physical needs related to the winter[3]. The radiator, central heating, and many more household items had to be invented for the purpose of surviving the winter. The cold climate of England might have increased the popularity of coal, especially for domestic heating, since the 14th century. Coal later played the central role of powering steam engines during the industrial revolution. It can be conjectured that the first horse drawn carriages appeared with the aim of avoiding the shrill chill of horse riding in the winter. Several centuries later the carriage was upgraded to the car and the train while the tropical traveler never imagined the need to change the ride of his horse or camel.

The lack of winter in tropical areas meant that the inhabitants were not pressed to develop similar innovations. What is important here is not the innovation itself, but the process of innovation and the culture of systematically solving the constraints imposed by nature. This is not to say that the there are no natural constraints in tropical areas, but I believe that the winter specially stands out as a unique natural challenge with an existential threat. Because of the winter, people have to plan ahead, save a certain fraction of income throughout the year, and invest on items that are required during the winter. It follows that people in temperate climate have adopted a long term oriented perspective to life that emphasizes thrift and a systematic application of knowledge for problem solving.

Secondly, the winter can have a role in the way society is structured. I believe the presence of cold winters provides people with the incentive to cooperate in order to counteract its effects. When I was a young boy growing up in Ethiopia, I sometimes used to run away for a day when I quarreled with my parents. I then went fishing with my friends to the farthest river, or set out to climb one of the nearby mountains. Of course my parents would be even more upset when I returned very late, but I knew that they were also worried. To avoid escalating the case further, they would pretend nothing happened and it was soon forgotten. But a 10 year old Dutch boy in my place could never play the same trick in a winter month. He has to sit down and talk to his parents and resolve the differences. By forcing people to stay inside the house, the winter can bring the family together, and compel them to undertake the challenging task of talking to each other and arriving at compromise.

What evidence is there for the direct effect of climate on culture? Figure 2 provides a scatter plot and a linear regression fit between an index of “long-term orientation” and average temperature. “Long-term orientation” is a cultural indicator that measures the extent to which a society plans ahead in the future. This indicator was developed by Geert Hoefstede and has been used a lot in scientific research.






















The figure depcits an unmistakable negative correlation between the culture of long-term orientation and average temperature. The index of long-term orientation, which varies between 0 in Guinea-Bissau (PUE) and 100 in South Korea (KOR), falls by 1.5 percent when average temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius.

Now we can connect the dots and, using the relationships exhibited in Figure 1 and Figure 2, show that average temperature lowers GDP per capita through its effect on culture. Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of long-term orientation and GDP per capita. The values for the index of long-term orientation used in this Figure are predicted values using temperature. Therefore, this relationship is akin to the standard instrumental variable estimation.






















Well, the results are all there to see. Predicted values of the index for long-term orientation have a clearly strong positive effect on GDP per capita. Since we are using only the part of variation of “long-term orientation” that is explained by the average temprature, this is a clear evidence for negative effect of climate on GDP per capita. There is enough here to say: It is the climate stupid!

You may say that this is an awful news for tropical countries. But does the result show that a country’s level of income is preordained by its distance from the Equator? I do not think so. To say that climate matters is not equivalent to saying that economic performance is determined forever as implied by “enviromental determinism”. Let me explain.

Figure 1 shows that more than three quarters of the total variation in GDP per capita remains unexplained. So yes, climate is an important determinants of income, but there is plenty room for other factors too. Picking up the earlier comparison, Uganda could double its income if it were as cold as Switzerland. But the income gap between the two countreis varies by a huge factor of 40; thus even after its income doubled Uganda would remain 20 times as poor as Switzerland. This clearly illustrates that even if Uganda’s climate were perfect, there is much to be done before its income gap is totally iliminated. The point is that there is enough room for imporving economic performance by fixing changeable policy and institutional vriables.

Related to this, Figure 1 illustrates that climate is not an important determinant of income at least in a few countries. Singapore and Hong Kong are worth mentioning again as examples of countries which grew inspite of their tropical climates. The Figure also shows that many countries such as Luxumberg, Malta, and even the USA have larger incomes than their climate would warrant. Many of the new Asian Tigers that are growing ferociously, including Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, are tropical countries. This is because, although climate is predestined, clulture can clearly change. People are adaptive and, if given the opportunity, it does not take long for a society to catch on the benefits of long term oriented customs such as thrift and education.



[1]  Although, I must admit, the generalizations he makes in his book “The Spirit of Laws” are in many ways overblown, and potentially biased.  

[2] In Aldous Huxley’s book “A Brave New World” the World Controller asks Mr. Watson where he would like to be deported to. “By the way, Mr. Watson, would you like a tropical climate? The Marquesas, for example; or Samoa? Or something rather more bracing?" Mr. Watson replies "I should like a thoroughly bad climate. I believe one would write better if the climate were bad. If there were a lot of wind and storms, for example …"

[3] It is reasonable to conjecture that people in temperate climates were the first to start wearing clothing and shoes, although it is difficult to definitely prove it due to the long time distance ever since. In the Adventures of Tom Sawyer, Mark Twain describes Tom as “the first boy that went barefoot in the spring and the last to resume leather in the fall,” reminding us that even in the 19th century, shoes were mostly parts of a winter wardrobe.