Population Issues: How Economics Rules

Environmentalists ranging from Malthus to Brundtland fret that the earth is exploding from overpopulation. Citing numbers like those depicted in the Figure below, they complain that the earth has reached a turning point. Man has become one pathetic fecund animal that reproduces without limit. In contrast, they contend that the earth’s resources are finite and, and its ecosystem fragile. If the current trend continues, man will not only have insufficient means to survive, but could also destroy the earth’s fragile ecosystem, polluting its water and air resources, and bringing about catastrophic phenomena such as global warming.  

Most environmentalists find enough ground in this to reject economic growth, thus emphasizing a new movement towards ‘economic de-growth'[1]. Some could even trace the roots of unbridled population growth back to the commencement of uninterrupted economic growth, largely since the late 19^th century.

  

Needless to say, the rise in human populations coincides with the era of economic growth. Modern food production that made available abundant, if nonorganic, food supplies significantly reduced deaths from starvation. Similarly, the invention of modern medication from the penicillin to an endless variety of vaccines has significantly lowered child mortality rates and contributed to higher life expectancy. However, to contend that sustainable human population growth can be achieved only by economic ‘degrowth’ is quite unwarranted.

One of the key scientifically established relationships in social sciences is what is known as “the demographic transition.” This refers to the observation that population growth rates fall with economic growth, an observation that can be easily ascertained from the Figure below. How does this come about? There are several ways in which economic growth contributes to lower population growth.

First, better economic growth brings about more and better quality of education. Perhaps there are many ways in which education reduces fertility. But one important mechanism is the feeling of empowerment education brings about, especially to women. With better education, individuals can break the mold of inherited societal roles, and get the ability to envision and plan their own future. This weakens the lethargic perception that adolescence is naturally followed by a family and a lot of children. With the empowerment of education, couples take the future into their own hands, and responsibly plan when and how many children to have.  

Second, and related, economic development makes child rearing an expensive venture. The benefit of having one more children must be weighed against the financial bites ensuing from it. This is what economists call the opportunity cost of time. When having a baby the mother has to stay home for period of at least half a year, and perhaps even longer than a year, which is quite a lot of money lost if she has to stop working. In the meantime, career plans have to be kept on hold. As time goes on more financial costs come in, including the cost for additional accommodation, means of transportation (perhaps a new car), and future costs of child care and education. Not just financially, but even emotionally, child rearing is an expensive business, if both couples are working and come home tired from a full day of work. All this increases the incentive for couples to having smaller and manageable families, with increased emphasis on the ‘quality’ of the child in terms of education and other resources devoted rather than the mere number of children.

There are many more reasons why population falls with economic growth. For example, the incentive for having more children as a means of ‘social security’ declines, since with increased economic prosperity the state often provides support for the retired. Even among families that are not fortunate enough to get the advantages of education and employment, economic growth makes contraceptives more accessible thus making family planning possible.

Overall, economic development is perhaps the best answer for the ills of overpopulation the earth is facing. As one famous person said before, it is indeed true that "development is the best contraceptive."[2]

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[1] Seek the Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth

[2] Karan Singh as quoted in :David N. Weil (2004). Economic Growth. Addison-Wesley. p. 111. 

Homeless Nile

There is an old saying in Ethiopia that roughly translates as “Nile has no home of its own, and yet it carries much luggage with it.” That is to imply that, knowing nothing of its destination, it assumes the burden of additional responsibility.

No doubt an Egyptian would disagree with that. Yes, it is true that Nile carries so much luggage with it. While meandering through the rugged Ethiopian highlands, the Nile washes down the fertile volcanic soil that give it its peculiar dark brown color. The annual flooding of this rich water has formed the backbone of the ancient Egyptian river valley civilization. And yet, while the Nile carries much luggage, an Egyptian would say, it is nothing but homeless. Its home is the Mediterranean, Egypt.

I have always wished to visit Egypt, a dream that has not yet come true. But even without visiting it, it is easy to imagine the precarious dependence of this desert country on the Nile. Without the rich gush of water that streams from the Ethiopian mountains, Egypt is but a patch of uninhabitable wasteland. Thanks to the Nile, though, it is home of an amazing ancient civilization. Although upwards 85% of the Nile waters come from Ethiopia, in the end most of it goes to the service of Egyptians that remain at the mouth of the river. This is the case today, as it has been for thousands of years.

There is an increasing controversy about Ethiopia’s plans to dam the Nile river. This issue has been simmering for years, but now that the actual physical work has started, it has grown to outright confrontation. And the media is awash with opinions from both sides. The first thing that startled me about these opinions is that the majority from both sides claim full privilege over the river. Sitting at different ends of the Nile, it appears that both Ethiopians and Egyptians claim the whole river for themselves. But the fact remains that the Nile starts in Ethiopia and ends in Egypt. Unavoidably, the Nile is a shared river.

To say that Egypt has ‘historical right’ over the Nile is as true as saying that Ethiopia has a ‘physical right’ on the river. Both are totally true, but do not necessarily contradict with each other. Although the Nile has not been ‘historically’ used in Ethiopia, taming the unharnessed Nile has been a dream Ethiopians have long itched to write in their history books. Now that this is becoming a reality, a significant change in perspective is expected from Egypt, a country that has for centuries dominated the Nile river and seems, even today, to naively assume that it can continue to do so. In the meantime, Ethiopia too should recognize that the Nile is shared, and a physical control on its source is not tantamount to complete ownership.

This time seems a critical juncture in the relationship between these two countries that have been from the beginning tied by the umblicalcord of the Nile, although both have so far failed to appreciate this fact. Given the rapid population growth and potentially frequent draughts from climate change, every drop of the Nile will become more valuable in the coming century. The relationship between the two countries will head in two potential courses of direction in the coming decades. Hopefully, both countries will come to terms with the fact that the Nile is a shared river, which needs to be jointly managed and developed. However, there is another scenario that worries me as a likely development. Faced with polarized politics and extreme poverty at home, politicians from both sides could use the Nile as smoke screen to externalize their problems. I am afraid that the Ethiopian and the Egyptian, who for thousands of years drank from the river Nile, will fail to recognize the value of their joint possession, and fall victim to hatred and anger towards each other. I can only hope that time will prove this fear wrong.

June 7, 2013

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 Nile river

 Blue Nile Falls, Ethiopia

 A map of the Nile

 Airial picture of the Nile Delta, Egypt

Sunset on the Nile