Sunday, June 9, 2013

Population Issues: How Economics Rules

Environmentalists ranging from Malthus to Brundtland fret that the earth is exploding from overpopulation. Citing numbers like those depicted in the Figure below, they complain that the earth has reached a turning point. Man has become one pathetic fecund animal that reproduces without limit. In contrast, they contend that the earth’s resources are finite and, and its ecosystem fragile. If the current trend continues, man will not only have insufficient means to survive, but could also destroy the earth’s fragile ecosystem, polluting its water and air resources, and bringing about catastrophic phenomena such as global warming.  

Most environmentalists find enough ground in this to reject economic growth, thus emphasizing a new movement towards ‘economic de-growth'[1]. Some could even trace the roots of unbridled population growth back to the commencement of uninterrupted economic growth, largely since the late 19th century.
  


Needless to say, the rise in human populations coincides with the era of economic growth. Modern food production that made available abundant, if nonorganic, food supplies significantly reduced deaths from starvation. Similarly, the invention of modern medication from the penicillin to an endless variety of vaccines has significantly lowered child mortality rates and contributed to higher life expectancy. However, to contend that sustainable human population growth can be achieved only by economic ‘degrowth’ is quite unwarranted.

One of the key scientifically established relationships in social sciences is what is known as “the demographic transition.” This refers to the observation that population growth rates fall with economic growth, an observation that can be easily ascertained from the Figure below. How does this come about? There are several ways in which economic growth contributes to lower population growth.

First, better economic growth brings about more and better quality of education. Perhaps there are many ways in which education reduces fertility. But one important mechanism is the feeling of empowerment education brings about, especially to women. With better education, individuals can break the mold of inherited societal roles, and get the ability to envision and plan their own future. This weakens the lethargic perception that adolescence is naturally followed by a family and a lot of children. With the empowerment of education, couples take the future into their own hands, and responsibly plan when and how many children to have.  


Second, and related, economic development makes child rearing an expensive venture. The benefit of having one more children must be weighed against the financial bites ensuing from it. This is what economists call the opportunity cost of time. When having a baby the mother has to stay home for period of at least half a year, and perhaps even longer than a year, which is quite a lot of money lost if she has to stop working. In the meantime, career plans have to be kept on hold. As time goes on more financial costs come in, including the cost for additional accommodation, means of transportation (perhaps a new car), and future costs of child care and education. Not just financially, but even emotionally, child rearing is an expensive business, if both couples are working and come home tired from a full day of work. All this increases the incentive for couples to having smaller and manageable families, with increased emphasis on the ‘quality’ of the child in terms of education and other resources devoted rather than the mere number of children.

There are many more reasons why population falls with economic growth. For example, the incentive for having more children as a means of ‘social security’ declines, since with increased economic prosperity the state often provides support for the retired. Even among families that are not fortunate enough to get the advantages of education and employment, economic growth makes contraceptives more accessible thus making family planning possible.

Overall, economic development is perhaps the best answer for the ills of overpopulation the earth is facing. As one famous person said before, it is indeed true that "development is the best contraceptive."[2]







[1] Seek the Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth
[2] Karan Singh as quoted in :David N. Weil (2004). Economic Growth. Addison-Wesley. p. 111. 

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